Uncertainties in the political and economic spheres characterized the months of October and November, traditionally a period of great activity for the art market, thanks to a multitude of European fairs on the calendar, followed by the billion-dollar auction session in New York.
The signs that have emerged do not point to a single path, and different trends can be detected in the segments of era, geographic reality and price involved.
October's fairs
Let's start with classical art, the protagonist in late September of the Biennale Internazionale dell'Antiquariato di Firenze (BIAF), an elegant exhibition at Palazzo Corsini along the Arno that confirmed the market's vibrancy for quality antique paintings and historical objects.
Beyond the discovery of reattributed works, such as a rare early drawing by Michelangelo, and artists who have made a comeback, especially female artists, such as Fede Galizia and Artemisia Gentileschi, the criterion for determining value remains the combination of rarity and quality, with a particular focus on provenance and any export issues that plague the Italian market.
The time frame for realization is not short, and in Florence successful negotiations that began in March in Maastricht at the TEFAF fair were concluded, but with proper planning, support in the due diligence phase, and long-term vision, that of classical art remains a market that can give not only aesthetic but also economic satisfaction.
From the intellectual calm of Palazzo Corsini we then moved on to the frenzy of the art tents in London's Frieze fairs focused on modern and contemporary art, and to the Grand Palais where the first ArtBasel Paris was held.
These major fairs attract a multitude of satellite events and concurrent auctions, representing true tests of the health of the market.
The twentieth century continues to give satisfaction, thanks in part to the side game with museum institutions, as in the case of Surrealism whose centenary is being celebrated with a magnificent exhibition at the Centre Pompidou, which are pushing up the values both for big names like Magritte and Dali, and for lesser-known artists until recently like Leonora Carrington and Leonor Fini.
Even 'our' Arte Povera, which conquered Paris with an exhibition at the Pinault Collection that, in addition to such established names as Alighiero Boetti, Michelangelo Pistoletto, and Jannis Kounellis, highlighted the contributions of another dozen or so artists less known to the international public, such as Pino Pascali and the Merz couple.
More complex is the discourse concerning super-contemporary art, which was present in London, Paris, but also and especially Turin at the Artissima fair in early November.
The speculative process that has been going on for the past five years, linked to a combination of colorful painting and works of an identity-based nature, seems to have come to an end, and all the players are looking for a new balance, hopefully this time sustainable and linked to foundational messages instead of passing fads.
New York auctions
The November New York auction session basically confirmed the trends that emerged in Europe, focusing the market's attention on the great living and nonliving names of historicized art, with record prices and excellent results for works by Magritte and Surrealist Women, Ed Ruscha, David Hockney, Pop Art, and Street Art, thanks in part to the usual mechanism of guarantees to protect these multimillion-dollar works.
The market thus seems to be dividing in favor of the highest price bracket, the one associated with American billionaires and multimillionaires who seem to be the real winners in the U.S. election, at least in the short term.
Against a backdrop of a sharp reduction in the speculative market for very young artists and newly executed works, it is now up to galleries to try to regain lost territory in favor of auction houses and stabilize the market for new artists by making it less risky and more attractive to collectors and medium- to long-term buyers.
The strong influences of the cryptocurrency world on the Trump administration could reinvigorate these speculative phenomena, though.